Le Représentant Résident du Fonds Monétaire International au Niger, M. Rasmane Ouédraogo a présenté vendredi 9 juin 2023 à Niamey, le Rapport perspectives économiques régionales, avril 2023 marqué par une grande pénurie de financement. Cet exercice qui se fait deux fois par an a fait ressortir que la région (Afrique Subsaharienne) est frappée de plein fouet par la crise de financement. Cela se traduit par des situations de financement qui se sont détériorées au cours de l’année écoulée. Selon les estimations du FMI, cette année (2023), la croissance économique de la région baissera pour s’établir à 3,6%. Notons que ce rapport retrace aussi les origines de pénuries de financement, détaille les préoccupations du FMI à cours et à moyen terme et donne quelques pistes de recommandations économiques.
Dans ses propos liminaires, le ministre des Finances, M. Ahmat Jidoud a dans une brève intervention soulignée qu’il est question pour ce haut responsable du FMI au Niger de faire le diagnostic en lien avec le contexte de nos pays marqués par une panoplie d’incertitudes et de risques mais également de faire des recommandations des politiques économiques pour pouvoir faire face à ces chocs. C’est ainsi que M. Ahmat Jidoud a invité les participants à faire des contributions dans le sens d’enrichir ces échanges et d’apporter des contributions supplémentaires par rapports aux analyses qui sont présentées.
Dans sa présentation, M. Rasmane Ouédraogo a précisé que l’adoption rapide d’une orientation monétaire plus restrictive au niveau mondial, en réponse à la flambée d’inflation qui a suivi le déclenchement de la guerre menée par la Russie en Ukraine, a entraîné une hausse des taux d’intérêt dans le monde entier et une nette augmentation des coûts d’emprunt pour les pays d’Afrique-subsaharienne, aussi bien sur les marchés de l’Afrique subsaharienne qui sont privés d’accès aux marchés financiers depuis le printemps 2022. « Les écarts de rendement observés sur les obligations souveraines ont grimpé en flèche. L’année dernière, le taux de change effectif du dollar a affiché un niveau jamais atteint en 20 ans, ce qui a eu pour effet de renchérir le remboursement des dettes libellées dans cette monnaie », a-t-il déclaré.
Le Représentant Résident du FMI au Niger a fait observer un recours accru aux marchés financiers intérieurs et internationaux qui a fait augmenter le ratio des tendances à paiements d’intérêt sur les recettes publiques. M. Rasmane Ouédraogo, a aussi rappelé qu’au lendemain de la pandémie de COVID-19 et du déclenchement de la guerre en Ukraine, les déséquilibres macroéconomiques sont redevenus un problème majeur pour la plupart des pays africains. « La dette publique et l’inflation sont à des niveaux jamais atteints depuis des décennies. Environ la moitié des pays de la région sont en proie à une inflation supérieure ou égale à 10%, qui détériorent le pouvoir d’achat des ménages et attise les tensions sociales », a-t-il ajouté.
Les perspectives pourraient également se dégrader
D’après les explications du Représentant Résident du FMI au Niger, cette pénurie de financement pourrait également avoir des conséquences plus profondes. Elle risque de contraindre les autorités à consacrer moins de moyens à des domaines essentiels pour le développement comme la santé, l’éducation et les infrastructures, au détriment du potentiel de croissance de la région. « Faute d’espace budgétaire, les pays de la région peinent à répondre aux besoins sociaux considérables de leurs populations, notamment pour ce qui concerne la crise du coût de la vie. D’après les estimations 132 millions de personnes se sont retrouvées en situation d’insécurité alimentaire aiguë en 2022 », a-t-il ajouté.
Toutefois, M. Rasmane Ouédraogo a dit que le Niger a une économie qui se porte très bien, la croissance économique a atteint 11,9% en 2022 et elle est estimée à 7% en 2023. « C’est l’un des pays qui a une croissance économique la plus élevée. Le Niger mène une politique budgétaire très prudente et le niveau de la dette actuellement est viable », a-t-il relevé. « Une légère amélioration de la situation dans des nombreux pays ne devrait pas compenser le ralentissement économique dans certains grands pays tels que l’Afrique du Sud. La plupart des pays subsahariens (19/35) connaissent un niveau élevé d’endettement. Autrement dit, ces pays ont soit un niveau des risques d’endettements élevés ou ont fait des défauts de payement », a-t-il déclaré.
Quelques recommandations
Il ressort de cette présentation que quatre domaines d’action prioritaires pour remédier aux déséquilibres sur fond de forte pénurie de financement. La première consiste à rééquilibrer les comptes publics et renforcer la gestion des finances publiques dans un contexte de durcissement des conditions financières. Pour ce faire, les autorités devraient poursuivre l’augmentation des recettes publiques, améliorer la gestion des risques budgétaires et faire preuve de plus de volontarisme dans la gestion de l’endettement. La deuxième consiste à juguler la hausse des prix en adaptant le rythme du resserrement monétaire et à la trajectoire de l’inflation. La troisième consiste à laisser les taux de change s’ajuster tout en atténuant les effets économiques néfastes des dépréciations, tels que l’accroissement des pressions inflationnistes et le renchérissement du service de la dette. La quatrième consiste à veiller à ce que les mesures importantes qui s’imposent pour contrer le changement climatique et ses effets ne viennent pas évincer les financements visant à couvrir des besoins élémentaires comme la santé et l’éducation.
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