La BAD, l’UA et l’ONUDI estiment que le continent deviendra la prochaine frontière mondiale du développement industriel s’il parvient à surmonter certains obstacles structurels persistants.
37 pays africains ont vu leur niveau d’industrialisation s’accroître au cours de la période 2010-2021, selon rapport publié le 24 novembre par la Banque africaine de développement (BAD) en collaboration avec l’Union africaine (UA) et l’Organisation des Nations unies pour le développement industriel (ONUDI).
Soulignant que le chemin de la prospérité de l’Afrique passe par le développement industriel, le rapport estime que plusieurs conditions sont désormais réunies pour le décollage de l’industrie sur le continent, dont les progrès notables en matière de stabilité, la forte proportion des jeunes dans la population, la hausse des investissements, domestiques et étrangers, et l’évolution rapide vers un espace économique intégré grâce à la Zone de libre-échange continentale africaine (Zlecaf), qui constitue une opportunité inédite de créer un marché unique de 1,3 milliard de personnes et de générer des dépenses cumulées des consommateurs et des entreprises pouvant atteindre 4 000 milliards de dollars.
D’importants obstacles structurels restent cependant à surmonter comme l’insuffisance des infrastructures, l’accès au financement, l’amélioration du climat des affaires et la formation des travailleurs, notamment dans le domaine des compétences numériques.
Le rapport intitulé « Indice 2022 de l’industrialisation en Afrique » fournit la toute première vue d’ensemble exhaustive des progrès réalisés par 52 pays africains au cours des onze dernières années en matière de développement industriel en se basant sur 19 indicateurs couvrant les performances manufacturières, le capital, la main-d’œuvre, l’environnement des affaires, les infrastructures et la stabilité macroéconomique. Dans ce cadre, une note est attribuée à chacun des pays étudiés sur une échelle qui va de 0 (moins bonne) à 1 (meilleure).
Les pays couverts par l’indice sont répartis en cinq quintiles : supérieur, moyen supérieur, moyen, moyen inférieur et inférieur.
Au total, 37 des 52 pays étudiés (les données ne sont pas disponibles pour la Somalie et le Soudan du Sud) ont amélioré leurs notes. Avec un score de 0,8404, l’Afrique du Sud est restée le pays le plus industrialisé du continent tout au long de la période 2010-2021. Le Maroc (0,8327) occupe le deuxième rang devant l’Egypte (0,7877), la Tunisie (0,7714), Maurice (0,6685) et l’Eswatini (0,6423).
Ces pays ont figuré dans le Top 6 au cours de la période 2010–2021, à l’exception des années 2015, 2016 et 2018, lorsque le Congo (2015 et 2016) puis la Namibie (2018) ont temporairement ravi la 6è position à l’Eswatini.
Djibouti et le Bénin réalisent les meilleures progressions
Les six pays les plus performants enregistrent toutefois une baisse de leur score par rapport à
2010, à l’exception de l’Egypte et du Maroc qui ont graduellement ravi la 3è puis la 2è place à la Tunisie, passée de la 2è position en 2010 à la 4è en 2021.
Le rapport révèle également que le Sénégal, le Kenya, le Nigeria et la Namibie ont intégré en 2021 le Top 10 des pays africains les plus performants en matière d’industrialisation sans pour autant améliorer tous leurs scores comparativement à 2010.
Si l’on compare la situation des trois dernières années à celle de 2010, certains pays ont réalisé d’importants progrès en matière de développement industriel.
Du point de vue du classement, Djibouti, le Bénin, le Mozambique, le Sénégal, l’Ethiopie, la Guinée, le Rwanda, la Tanzanie, le Ghana et l’Ouganda ont été les pays ayant réalisé les progrès les plus importants. Chacun de ces pays a gagné au moins cinq rangs au cours de la période sous-revue. Les plus fortes progressions ont été réalisées par Djibouti, qui est passé du 50è au 33è rang ainsi que par le Bénin, qui a atteint la 18è position en 2021 après avoir occupé le 32è rang en 2010.
L’Angola, le Mali, le Congo, le Cap-Vert, le Soudan, les Seychelles, le Malawi, le Zimbabwe, le Lesotho et le Niger ont accusé les plus fortes régressions au niveau du classement, chacun de ces pays ayant perdu au moins quatre rangs entre 2010 et 2021.
Les dix derniers pays au titre de l’Indice de l’industrialisation en Afrique sont restés généralement les mêmes au cours de la période 2010-2021. Six pays (Burundi, République centrafricaine, Comores, Gambie, Guinée-Bissau et Sierra Leone) se sont maintenus dans le quintile inférieur chaque année, et trois pays (Tchad et Sao Tome & Principe en 2010, Érythrée en 2012) l’ont quitté seulement une année.
Les conditions sont réunies pour un décollage, mais…
Djibouti, la Guinée et la Mauritanie ont amélioré leur niveau de développement industriel, pour se hisser durablement dans le quintile moyen inférieur à partir de 2015, 2017 et 2011 respectivement, tandis que le Malawi a chuté dans le quintile inférieur à partir de 2017.
En 2021, les dix derniers pays dans le classement étaient le Malawi (0,4229), São Tomé & Príncipe (0,4198), le Tchad (0,4178), les Comores (0,4078), l’Erythrée (0,4041), la République centrafricaine (0,4018), la Sierra Leone (0,3777), la Guinée-Bissau (0,3663), le Burundi (0.3483) et la Gambie (0,3455).
L’analyse régionale fait d’autre part ressortir que l’Afrique du Nord (score moyen : 0,6594) s’affirme comme la région la plus avancée en matière de développement industriel en Afrique, suivie de l’Afrique australe (0,5649), de l’Afrique centrale (0,5020), de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (0,4887) et de l’Afrique de l’Est (0,47602). Le classement de ces cinq régions est resté inchangé au cours de la période 2010–2021.
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