Dans un monde qui devient multipolaire, les Etats-Unis, la France, la Chine et la Russie intensifient leur guerre économique et d’influence en Afrique, au rythme notamment de tournées sur le continent, de sommets et forums, de contrats entre entreprises publiques et privés ou de projets de développement… Mais alors que les stratégies africaines s’affirment et que les autres partenaires du continent se positionnent sur les brèches émanant de cette guerre entre grandes puissances, La Tribune Afrique décrypte les dessous et les enjeux de cette bataille pour l’influence.
”Je crois que l’innovation qui a lieu sur le continent africain débloquera une croissance économique incroyable et des opportunités pour le monde entier. […] Je travaille pendant ce voyage pour attirer davantage d’investissements du secteur privé […] sur le continent ». Sur ces déclarations, la vice-présidente américaine Kamala Harris a clôturé dimanche 2 avril sa tournée africaine d’une semaine qui l’a menée au Ghana, en Tanzanie et en Zambie. Mettant l’accent sur les secteurs tels que la technologie, l’entrepreneuriat, l’autonomisation des femmes ou le climat, l’adjointe de Joe Biden a annoncé plus de 9 milliards de dollars de financement public-privé américain. 7 milliards de dollars devraient soutenir l’Afrique face aux défis climatiques, tandis qu’une enveloppe de 100 millions de dollars sera allouée à la lutte contre l’extrémisme au Ghana, au Bénin, en Guinée, en Côte d’Ivoire et au Togo. Les Américains vont en outre financer, via le secteur privé, la construction en Tanzanie d’une usine de transformation de minéraux en nickel de qualité batterie qui devrait atterrir sur les marchés américain et mondiaux à compter de 2026.
L’intense balai d’officiels américains dans les capitales africaines
Kamala Harris est ainsi le cinquième officiel américain à séjourner en Afrique en seulement trois mois. Du jamais-vu. Mi-mars, le Secrétaire d’Etat américain Antony Blinken emboîtait le pas à la première dame Jill Biden, à l’ambassadrice américaine auprès des Nations unies Linda Thomas-Greenfield et à la Secrétaire au Trésor Janet Yellen qui a ouvert le bal en janvier. C’est au total une douzaine de pays visités, du Sénégal à l’Afrique du Sud, en passant par le Niger, la République Démocratique du Congo (RDC), le Rwanda ou l’Ethiopie, avec toujours l’objectif de créer de nouvelles passerelles commerciales et d’influence entre le pays de l’Oncle Sam et le continent. « Une Afrique prospère est dans l’intérêt des Etats-Unis. [Cela] signifie un plus grand marché pour nos biens et services », déclarait Yellen moins d’un mois après le Sommet Etats-Unis-Afrique qui a réuni 49 chefs d’Etats africains à Washington. Cette grand-messe a débouché sur une promesse d’investissement américain de 55 milliards de dollars sur trois ans. En outre, Joe Biden plaide désormais pour l’octroi à l’Afrique d’un siège permanent au G20 dont l’Afrique du Sud est le seul membre issu du continent.
Même si au pupitre, l’administration Biden-Harris tente d’écarter son offensive africaine de sa rivalité avec la Chine, il est clair -rien qu’au regard du traitement médiatique américain- que ce réveil sur le continent vise à contrer l’avancée de l’empire du Milieu dont les échanges commerciaux avec l’Afrique sont passés de 10 milliards de dollars en 2002 à 282 milliards de dollars en 2022.
La contre-attaque de Pékin
Moins de trois semaines après le Sommet de Washington, Pékin a dépêché début janvier son nouveau ministre des Affaires étrangères, Qin Gang, pour la traditionnelle tournée africaine de début d’année. Souvent accusée de « piéger » l’Afrique par la dette, la Chine est également accusée de développer « une stratégie de prédation sur les matières premières ». Ce que ses autorités réfutent naturellement. « L’Afrique devrait être une grande scène pour la coopération internationale plutôt qu’une arène de lutte pour les jeux des grandes puissances », déclarait le ministre chinois en conférence de presse au siège de l’Union africaine (UA) à Addis Abeba. « S’il y a la concurrence, comparons alors qui a fait le plus de travail pratique pour le développement pacifique de l’Afrique et qui a fait le plus d’efforts pour donner à l’Afrique une plus grande représentation et voix dans l’agenda de la gouvernance internationale », a-t-il dit, rappelant que la Chine soutient déjà l’entrée de l’UA au G20.
« Les grandes puissances bousculent les équilibres établis pour défendre leurs intérêts qui sont à la fois économiques, diplomatiques, militaires … », commente dans un entretien avec La Tribune Afrique François Jeanne-Beylot, expert international et président du Syndicat français de l’intelligence économique (SYNFIE).
Une course à la reconstitution des réseaux africains
Ces quatre dernières années, la guerre d’influence que se livrent les puissances en Afrique s’est intensifiée. D’abord purement politique, cette rivalité internationale a pris un fort ancrage économique après que les grandes puissances se soient aperçues de la discrète montée en puissance des Chinois
au sein des économies africaines via leurs entreprises. Outre les offensives lancées de part et d’autre, l’urgence climatique a renforcé la volonté de (re)positionnement des puissances, tant le continent -avec notamment les forêts du Bassin du Congo- regorge d’un atout carbone capital pour l’avenir de la planète.
A côté, l’essor de la Russie -qui, depuis 2019, a réorienté sa stratégie africaine- gêne le bloc occidental (les Etats-Unis et la France en l’occurrence). Encore plus depuis le déclenchement de la guerre en Ukraine et l’expansion à grande vitesse du groupe paramilitaire Wagner désormais actif dans 24 pays africains. En mars, le Kremlin -qui prépare son Sommet Russie-Afrique à forte empreinte économique prévu fin juillet- a réuni en amont à Moscou les députés africains et russes, fustigeant le « néocolonialisme » occidental. « Notre pays est déterminé à poursuivre la construction d’un partenariat stratégique au plein sens du terme avec nos amis Africains, et nous sommes prêts à façonner ensemble l’agenda mondial », a déclaré Vladimir Poutine le 20 mars.
« Nous sommes dans une période extrêmement critique où les puissances sont en train de reconstituer leurs réseaux économiques et d’influence en Afrique », estime Valérie Houphouët-Boigny, responsable du Club Afrique de l’AEGE, le réseau d’experts Alumni de l’Ecole de guerre économique (EGE). « L’enjeu de cette course à la reconstitution des réseaux, analyse l’experte, réside définitivement dans la capacité d’analyse, de décryptage des sociétés africaines : qu’attendent les jeunesses africaines aujourd’hui, qu’attendent les hommes d’affaires africains ? … ».
La Russie « marginale et surmédiatisée », un « piège » pour la France ?
C’est justement autour de cette jeunesse que la France a fixé la porte d’entrée de sa nouvelle stratégie, tentant de redorer son image politique et pousser ses pions sur le terrain économique où elle a considérablement reculé. Le Nouveau Sommet Afrique-France qui a rassemblé, en octobre 2021, des jeunes leaders du continent à Montpellier en est l’illustration. Si au départ la France affiche sa volonté de reprendre le leadership économique ravi par la Chine dans plusieurs pays francophones, les deux dernières tournées africaines d’Emmanuel Macron en juillet 2022 (Cameroun, Bénin et Guinée Bissau) et en mars 2023 (Gabon, Angola, Congo, RDC) ont mis en évidence la forte rivalité avec le Kremlin.
« La Russie est extrêmement marginale et surmédiatisée. La stratégie russe fonde son contenu sur ce que dit la rue africaine. Je pense même que la propagande russe en Afrique n’est pas destinée aux Africains, mais vise plutôt à déstabiliser les puissances occidentales (Etats-Unis et France) du point de vue cognitif, sur leurs terrains de prédilection », analyse Valérie Houphouët-Boigny. Elle estime qu’en brouillant les grilles de lectures françaises en Afrique, Moscou favorise Pékin : « l’alliance Chine-Russie est très claire à ce niveau. Si la France -et plus largement l’Europe- se retrouve au milieu de la guerre Etats-Unis – Chine, elle n’aura pas de marge de manœuvre propre. C’est un piège à éviter ».
Ces « atouts inexploités » par Paris
Plus tard cette année, Emmanuel Macron devrait se rendre en Afrique de l’Est. Après le bilan mitigé des précédentes tournées, l’Elysée -également peu à l’aise au Maghreb où les tensions avec le Maroc persistent- réajustera-t-il sa stratégie ? D’autant que Paris, cumule les couacs dans sa démarche diplomatique -notamment sur les questions monétaires en lien avec le Franc CFA, des déclarations souvent jugées offensantes, etc- De l’avis des experts, Paris dispose pourtant d’atouts « pas exploités comme il faudrait », parce que disent-ils, le rejet de la France en Afrique est politique, mais pas économique. « Je le vois en tant que chef d’entreprise intervenant en Afrique. Dans les pays où soi-disant on n’aime pas la France, on aime bien travailler avec les entreprises françaises. Donc les gens peuvent ne pas aimer les déclarations du président français, mais continuer de travailler avec les entreprises françaises », témoigne Jeanne-Beylot.
La présence historique du secteur privé français, ses méthodes de travail connues sont autant d’éléments sur lesquels Paris pourrait s’appuyer pour se repositionner économiquement, « non pas en tant que puissance, mais en tant que partenaire », selon les experts. « Sur ce volet, la France a un avantage par rapport aux Etats-Unis, parce que les entreprises américaines sont très peu connues en Afrique », compare Valérie Houphouët-Boigny.
L’autre atout selon les experts est la Francophonie. « La question est de savoir pourquoi l’Etat français ne joue pas la carte de la francophonie économique ? », interroge François Jeanne-Beylot, remarquant que le Commonwealth -chiffré en termes d’emplois, de chiffre d’affaires, etc- devrait inspirer la Francophonie. Dans ce sens, l’Alliance des patronats francophones est considérée comme un premier pas « innovant », qu’il faudrait « multiplier ». « Déjà en parlant d’alliance, on se rapproche de l’échelle de valeur africaine. Et avec cette alliance des patronats francophone qui rassemble tous les patrons d’Afrique francophone, la France redevient un acteur légitime au même titre que le patronat ivoirien, marocain, congolais, camerounais, burundais ou autre », explique la responsable du Club Afrique de l’AEGE.
Les stratégies africaines mises en évidence
Face à la convoitise internationale dont l’Afrique fait l’objet, ses dirigeants lèvent désormais la tête et prônent la diversification des partenaires. « Il y a peut-être une obsession aux Etats-Unis à propos des activités chinoises sur le continent. Mais il n’y a pas une telle obsession ici à propos de la Chine. […] Tous les pays sont nos amis et nous avons des relations à différents degrés d’intensité avec chacun d’entre eux », a déclaré le président ghanéen Nana Akufo-Addo, face à la presse aux côtés de Kamala Harris. Paul Biya du Cameroun a tenu des propos similaires lors de la visite d’Emmanuel Macron en juillet 2022 au sujet de la Russie, se refusant -comme la majorité de ses pairs- de condamner l’invasion russe en Ukraine. « L’Afrique est suffisamment lucide. Nos pays ont encore des ressources y compris les ressources écologiques. Nous devons en faire bon usage. Les pays doivent choisir les partenaires qui leurs font les meilleures offres, c’est-à-dire la meilleure qualité au meilleur prix. Si celles-ci sont françaises, américaines, russes ou chinoises, le choix se fera dans le cadre d’un partenariat gagnant-gagnant », défend dans un entretien avec LTA Paul Obambi, PDG de SAPRO, un conglomérat industriel majeur au Congo Brazzaville.
« L’intérêt économique revient au centre des préoccupations des Africains », remarque Valérie Houphouët-Boigny, tant au niveau des Etats que des entreprises ou des individus. « Ce que chacun des partenaires peut apporter est décrypté », ajoute l’experte, soulignant notamment le nombre grandissant d’Africains qui se forment en intelligence économique.
En termes de stratégie, certains pays s’inscrivent en revanche dans une logique de préférence de partenaires et optent pour la confrontation jusqu’à la rupture. C’est le cas du Mali qui, en mai 2022, a rompu ses accords de défense avec la France au profit de la Russie, actant également la fin des relations diplomatiques avec l’hexagone, après plusieurs mois de confrontation. La Centrafrique et le Burkina Faso lui ont emboité le pas.
D’autres pays, à l’instar du Maroc, confrontent sans (visiblement) l’intention d’arriver à la rupture, comme c’est le cas depuis plus d’un an avec la France, même si Emmanuel Macron a annulé son voyage officiel initialement prévu au premier trimestre 2023. « Les Marocains sont assez habiles à jouer avec plusieurs armes : l’alliance et la confrontation », estime la responsable du Club Afrique de l’AEGE. « Le Maroc, explique l’experte, crée des alliances avec les puissances occidentales tout en se réservant ses propres voies de sortie. Et c’est sur ces portes de sortie que le royaume fait des confrontations, car la collaboration se poursuit en réalité ».
Comment les autres partenaires de l’Afrique profitent de cette guerre entre puissances
Alors qu’un monde multipolaire se dessine au gré de cette guerre d’influence en Afrique, les pays émergents jouent aussi de leurs cartes afin d’étendre leurs parts sur les marchés africains, notamment dans le secteur de l’armement. Ainsi, l’Inde a présenté fin mars une série d’équipements militaires (hélicoptères, drones et pièces d’artillerie) aux autorités de 31 pays africains à Pune, cette ville de l’ouest, fief de l’industrie militaire indienne. L’atout de New Delhi : le coût de son armement beaucoup moins onéreux que celui de l’occident.
La Turquie qui multiplie récemment les livraisons d’équipement militaires sur le continent, vient de jouer une autre carte, celle des médias. Le radiodiffuseur public turc a officiellement lancé TRT Afrika, sa chaîne de télévision dédiée au continent. Le pays d’Erdogan -dont l’image s’est considérablement écornée récemment suite au meurtre d’une jeune étudiante gabonaise- a donc choisi les médias comme principal outil de soft power.
Avec son agenda économique phare, la Zone de libre-échange continentale africaine (Zlecaf), l’Afrique est également rentrée dans une logique qui, en quelque sorte, oblige ses partenaires au pragmatisme. Toujours dans sa stratégie d’accélération de son influence, les Etats-Unis ont signé en décembre un protocole d’accord pour appuyer la mise en œuvre de cet espace commercial qui sera le plus grand monde avec 1,2 milliard de consommateurs et un PIB combiné de 3,4 milliards de dollars.
Outre l’éventuel déplacement d’Emmanuel Macron en Afrique de l’Est, Joe Biden est attendu courant 2023 en Afrique, à la suite de Kamala Harris et ce que son administration a entamé en décembre. Avec leur sommet à venir, les Russes devraient renouveler une tournée africaine, Vladimir Poutine étant pressenti à Pretoria lors du sommet des BRICS en août. La Chine aussi pourrait renouveler un déplacement officiel sur le continent plus tard dans l’année, son sommet avec l’Afrique ne devant revenir qu’en 2024. Bref, le continent sera probablement à nouveau le théâtre d’un balai des puissances. De l’avis du Professeur Landry Signé, qui a récemment publié une analyse pour la Brookings Institution où il est chercheur senior, « la meilleure façon [pour l’occident] de faire progresser des relations mutuellement bénéfiques » avec l’Afrique « est d’accélérer la mise en œuvre des engagements pris ».
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