La Banque Mondiale a dans un rapport publié le mardi 5 janvier dernier, prévu une croissance de 2,7% pour les pays de l’Afrique subsaharienne. Dans ce document, l’institution fait également ressortir une chute de la production de 3,7 % en 2020 à la suite des perturbations de l’activité économique provoquées par la pandémie de COVID-19 et les mesures de confinement qui s’en sont suivies. Cette pandémie n’a pas épargné les deux géants de l’économie du continent qui sont l’Afrique du Sud et le Nigeria, le Niger pour sa part s’en sort plutôt bien.
Les États les plus touchés, selon l’institution de Breton Wood, sont ceux où la pandémie a le plus frappé, ceux qui sont fortement tributaires des secteurs du voyage et du tourisme et ceux qui exportent des produits de base, en particulier du pétrole.
« La pandémie a continué de se propager au deuxième trimestre dans plusieurs pays et ne donne guère de signe de s’atténuer », rapporte le texte. Cette pandémie n’a pas épargné les géants de l’économie africaine qui sont l’Afrique du Sud et le Nigéria.
« Selon les estimations, le PIB de l’Afrique du Sud, où l’activité économique était déjà atone avant l’arrivée de la COVID-19, a diminué de 7,8 % au cours de l’année passée. Le pays a été particulièrement touché par la pandémie, et les strictes mesures de confinement ont paralysé l’économie. L’économie nigériane, quant à elle, a reculé de 4,1 % en 2020, la pandémie entravant l’activité économique dans tous les secteurs », souligne le rapport.
Les données de la Banque laisse interpréter que les pays exportateurs de pétrole de la région dont l’Angola, la République du Congo, la Guinée équatoriale, le Soudan du Sud ont été confrontés à une forte baisse des cours, tandis que les pays dans lesquels les secteurs du voyage et du tourisme jouent un rôle crucial comme Cabo Verde, Éthiopie, Maurice, Seychelles eux ont souffert de l’absence quasi totale de voyageurs. Aussi l’économie a marqué un moindre repli dans les pays exportateurs de produits agricoles (Bénin, Côte d’Ivoire, Malawi, Ouganda).
L’année 2021 serait marquée par une relance de l’économie des pays africains au sud du Sahara, prévoit l’institution de Breton Wood. Selon les projections de l’institution, l’Afrique subsaharienne devrait enregistrer un redressement modéré en 2021, avec un taux de croissance de 2,7 %. La reprise de la consommation et de l’investissement privés pourrait être plus lente que prévu antérieurement, mais les exportations devraient s’accélérer progressivement, à la faveur de la relance des activités des principaux partenaires commerciaux.
S’agissant du Niger, les projections sont plutôt optimistes. Le pays connaitrait une croissance de 5,1% durant l’année en cours selon la Banque Mondiale, qui prévoit en moyenne une croissance de 2,7 % pour l’ensemble des pays de l’Afrique subsaharienne.
Seuls le Kenya (6,9) ; le Botswana (5,7) ; le Cap vert, la Côte d’Ivoire et la Guinée (pour qui la Banque prévoit une croissance de 5,5%), et le Maurice (avec une croissance prévue de 5,3%), connaitront de performances plus soutenues que celle du Niger en Afrique Subsaharienne.
Selon les projections, la croissance économique du Niger dépassera alors celle de son voisin du sud, le Bénin (5,0%) et de loin celle de la première puissance économique et démographique du continent, à savoir le Nigeria (1,1%).
L’institution compte mobiliser 160 milliards de dollars qui seront financées sur une période de 15 mois, dans le but d’aider plus de 100 pays dont le Niger pour permettre la protection des populations pauvres. Mais aussi à soutenir les entreprises et favoriser le redressement de l’économie. Ce montant, annonce le bailleur de fond, comprend notamment 50 milliards de dollars sous forme de nouveaux dons et de prêts à des conditions très favorables fournis par l’IDA, ainsi qu’une enveloppe de 12 milliards de dollars destinée à financer l’achat et la distribution de vaccins contre la COVID-19 dans les pays en développement.
Hamadou Moussa Fatahou pour Niameyinfo.
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