Entretien avec l’analyste Mathieu Pellerin sur la guerre contre les jihadistes en Afrique de l’Ouest. Un regard en deux volets sur le phénomène jihadiste et son expansion dans la région. Première partie.
Mathieu Pellerin est analyste Sahel chez International Crisis Group et chercheur associé au centre Afrique subsaharienne de l’Ifri, l’Institut français des relations internationales.
RFI : Mathieu Pellerin, quand on évoque les groupes armés contre lesquels luttent les forces nationales et internationales au Sahara et au Sahel, de qui parle-t-on ?
Mathieu Pellerin : On parle de deux entités jihadistes principales. D’un côté, le Groupe de soutien à l’islam et aux musulmans (GSIM ou JNIM), qui regroupe différents groupes au Sahel se revendiquant d’al-Qaïda au Maghreb islamique (Aqmi) : il s’agit principalement d’Ansar Dine et de sa katiba Macina, de la katiba al-Furqan et d’al-Mourabitoune. De l’autre, l’État islamique dans la Province d’Afrique de l’Ouest (Iswap) qui opère à travers deux branches, l’une dans le lac Tchad et au nord-est du Nigeria, la seconde dont le foyer se situe dans la région de Ménaka, au Mali, et qui s’étend dans une zone du Liptako-Gourma, et même désormais au-delà (EIGS). Deux autres groupes opèrent au Nigeria, l’aile de Boko Haram dirigée par Abubakar Shekau et appelée Groupe sunnite pour la prédication et le jihad et Ansaru, lui-même dissident historique de Boko Haram.
Comment caractériser les jihadistes ?
Les jihadistes au Sahel sont historiquement nés des décombres de la guerre civile algérienne, une partie des jihadistes qui ont refusé la politique d’amnistie (« concorde civile ») du président algérien ayant reflué au nord du Niger et surtout au nord du Mali où ils se sont progressivement sanctuarisés. Le jihadisme est donc d’inspiration étrangère et, encore aujourd’hui, plusieurs de ces groupes sont dirigés par des étrangers (Sahraouis, Algériens, Mauritaniens). Dans le même temps, cette sanctuarisation s’est faite en pénétrant les sociétés sahéliennes et en recrutant majoritairement en leur sein. Les groupes jihadistes sont donc aujourd’hui essentiellement composés de Nigériens au Niger, de Maliens au Mali, de Nigérians au Nigeria et de Burkinabè au Burkina. Les États sahéliens pointent toujours la responsabilité sur un acteur étranger, mais cette réalité basique devrait suffire à les convaincre de regarder avant tout leurs propres responsabilités. La question qui se pose est de savoir comment les agendas globaux et locaux cohabitent, se rejoignent ou au contraire deviennent contradictoires.
Quels sont les nouveaux visages du jihadisme au Sahel ?
La progression du jihadisme dans la bande centrale du Sahel, où les densités de populations sont plus importantes, a fait évoluer la composition de ces groupes. Les populations arabes ou touarègues y sont moins nombreuses, au contraire notamment de la communauté peule, fortement représentée au sein des groupes jihadistes, qu’il s’agisse de JNIM ou de l’EIGS. Si l’emphase est souvent mise sur la communauté peule, il faut rappeler que les groupes jihadistes recrutent au sein de toutes les communautés sans exception. L’EIGS compte des cadres Daoussahak, des Djerma, des Gourmantché, etc. La katiba Macina d’Ansar Dine compte des cadres dogons et bambaras. C’est ça les nouveaux visages du jihadisme au Sahel : là où les observateurs se focalisent sur un soi-disant « jihad peul », les groupes s’ingénient à recruter bien au-delà de cette communauté… Toutefois, avec la chute de l’État islamique au Moyen-Orient, aux difficultés des groupes jihadistes dans tout le Maghreb, et en particulier en Libye, les jihadistes issus de ces zones se replient sur le Sahel. C’est un jihad à la fois de plus en plus local mais qui pourrait être exposé à une tentative d’emprise de la part des chefs jihadistes opérant au Moyen-Orient, au Maghreb, pour qui le Sahel (et l’Afrique plus largement) est le dernier territoire d’expansion.
Comment expliquez-vous le développement et la multiplication de ces mouvements insurrectionnels ?
Cela tient avant tout à la gouvernance des sociétés sahéliennes et leur incapacité à y garantir la participation de toutes les communautés. L’exclusion politique, la marginalisation communautaire, la permanence de situations d’esclavage par ascendance, le racket des communautés les plus fragiles, l’absence de perspectives de communautés déclassées sont autant de situations perçues comme « injustes » par ceux qui les vivent et qui leur donne des raisons objectives de prendre les armes. À certains égards, les jihadistes sont les rebelles d’hier : la dimension religieuse au début ne tient qu’une place limitée. Elle est portée par un noyau d’idéologues. Mais ne nous y trompons pas : la radicalisation religieuse s’opère bien souvent après l’enrôlement. Aux yeux de ceux qui rejoignent les groupes jihadistes, ces groupes renvoient à un idéal d’égalité et de justice auquel leurs militants peuvent adhérer sans réserve alors qu’ils ne présentaient aucune prédisposition religieuse à l’origine. Mais la quête de justice vire parfois à la recherche de vengeance, et on voit que cela divise quelque peu les groupes jihadistes entre eux, comme je l’explique dans mon dernier article pour l’Ifri, « Les violences armées au Sahara – Du djihadisme aux insurrections ? ». Ensuite, autour de ce noyau d’individus convaincus et résolument engagés, vous trouvez des acteurs qui rejoignent par intérêt : pour des motivations économiques, par nécessité de se protéger contre un groupe armé ou d’autodéfense, ou contre les forces de défense et de sécurité, ou par simple opportunisme opérationnel pour ce qui est des bandits (coupeurs de route) qui s’allient aux jihadiste pour poursuivre leurs activités…
Y a-t-il, entre tous ces groupes armés, des revendications et une stratégie partagées ?
L’EIGS et JNIM ont autant de divergences de fond que d’intérêts à avancer ensemble face un ennemi qui fait front commun, à savoir les États sahéliens et leurs partenaires régionaux et internationaux. Ces divergences tiennent en particulier à leur position vis-à-vis de l’appartenance communautaire, au respect de la vie civile et des autres religions ou encore à l’opportunité de dialoguer avec les États. Sur ces sujets, JNIM (et al-Qaïda à l’échelle globale) a toujours été bien moins fondamentaliste que ISWAP. Dans le lac Tchad, ces mêmes questions divisent Iswap et le groupe de Abubakar Shekau, et même au sein d’Iswap, le n°2 du mouvement a été exécuté l’an dernier pour l’une de ces raisons. La question est de savoir si ces divergences idéologiques prendront le pas sur l’impératif de rester uni. L’autre élément à avoir en tête est que ces deux groupes sont en quête d’expansion territoriale et qu’à la faveur de l’affaiblissement de certaines katibas de JNIM (du fait notamment des opérations de Barkhane) et d’une radicalisation locale des communautés, l’EIGS a recruté et progressivement grignoté sur les territoires historiques de JNIM (et d’Aqmi). Cela donne lieu, depuis quelques semaines, à des conflits très localisés entre eux, en particulier au centre du Mali et dans le gourma malien. Les deux groupes continuent, en parallèle, de chercher les moyens de s’entendre, mais il n’est pas impossible que les leaders de ces groupes soient eux-mêmes dépassés par la position de leurs combattants… Autrement dit, un conflit peut démarrer à la base entre combattants sans que le leadership de ces groupes en soit responsable.
Les grandes organisations jihadistes sahariennes sont-elles toujours les maîtres de la nébuleuse terroriste qui se développe au Sahel et plus au sud ?
C’est une très bonne question. Elles sont maîtresses de cette descente vers le sud mais n’ont pas forcément le même contrôle sur leurs combattants dans ces espaces. Leurs éléments y jouissent d’une certaine autonomie d’action, au point parfois d’agir en contradiction avec les orientations du mouvement, par exemple dans le cas où ils s’adonnent à du vol de bétail. Et plus elles descendront vers le sud, plus il leur sera difficile de s’enraciner. Dans les foyers qui pourraient apparaître demain dans ces espaces, nous verrons des insurrections avant tout politiques ou sociales que les jihadistes chercheront à favoriser ou à soutenir. Les agendas de ces groupes seront encore plus composites. Mais à mesure que le temps passe, les groupes affermissent leur contrôle et assoient leur idéologie.
Les mouvances jihadistes qui opèrent en Afrique de l’Ouest ont-elles une stratégie concertée d’expansion régionale ?
Si les mouvements se revendiquant d’al-Qaïda et de l’État Islamique se concertent pour s’étendre, je ne le pense pas. Le développement du G5 a sans doute contribué à rapprocher les deux entités pour faire front commun au Sahel mais, au-delà, les mouvements restent concurrents dans leurs stratégies d’expansion parce qu’ils poussent dans la même direction. Prenons le nord-ouest du Nigeria qui est un territoire d’expansion pour ces groupes. On observe actuellement une kyrielle de cellules jihadistes se revendiquant de différents groupes aux côtés de groupes de bandits avec lesquels ils entretiennent des relations oscillant entre confrontation et alliances. En revanche, une fois sur place et face à face, il n’est pas exclu que les groupes s’entendent autour d’un partage de territoires pour éviter que leur division ne profite à leurs ennemis communs.
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