L’initiative G20 de suspension des services de la dette entre juin et décembre 2020 a divisé le continent en deux parties : ceux qui y ont souscrit, au nombre de 23 et ceux qui ont décliné au nombre de 13. Les premiers estiment que la mesure évaluée globalement à 12,1 milliards de dollars n’est pas suffisamment intéressante sur le plan financier et les exposent à une dépréciation de leurs notes. Les seconds font siens le proverbe africain qui dit que “poisson attrapé avec la main est plus sûr que poisson sous le pied” et signent.
13 pays n’ont pas souscrit
Par exemple, le Nigeria a renoncé à signer, se privant de 107 millions de dollars équivalents à moins de 0,1% de son PIB. En guerre civile depuis 1992, la Somalie a décliné l’offre du G20. Autre pays à ne pas avoir souscrit à la mesure, le Sud Soudan, indépendant depuis 2011 et où la Banque Mondiale indique aucun paramètre d’appréciation de la note. La Guinée Bissau et le Libéria ont aussi décliné l’offre qui ne leur aurait rapporté que 0,1% de leurs PIBs soit respectivement 900 000 dollars et 1,8 million de dollars. Le Rwanda et son profil d’endettement à risque modéré est dans la même situation, renonçant à une mesure qui ne lui aurait rapporté que 12,6 millions de dollars soit 0,1% du PIB. Le Bénin a aussi décliné l’opération qui lui aurait fait gagner 13 millions de dollars soit 0,1% de son PIB. Refus aussi relevé chez le Burundi, qui aurait ainsi renoncé à 0,1% de son PIB soit l’équivalent de 3,9 millions de dollars.
L’impact de l’initiative G20 est tout aussi limité pour Madagascar qui a décliné l’initiative estimée à 0,2% de son PIB, soit 24 millions de dollars.. Idem pour le Lesotho qui n’a pas signé l’initiative, tournant le dos à un impact de 9,5 millions de dollars pour 0,3% de PIB. Soit le même niveau que l’Ouganda, autre pays non signataire, qui renonce à 0,3% du PIB soit 95,6 millions de dollars. Également réfractaire, le Kenya renonce ainsi à des mesures évaluées à 800 millions de dollars soit 0,8% de son PIB.
23 pays ont signé
Pour leur part, les pays qui ont souscrit à l’initiative G20 ont fait le calcul inverse, en bénéficiant de mesures immédiates quitte à devoir supporter une dépréciation de leurs notations financières respectives. Ainsi, le Burkina Faso a souscrit à l’initiative, épargnant 23,3 millions de dollars soit 0,2% de son PIB. Même impact relatif (0,2%) du Malawi qui sécurise 17,1 millions de dollars ou encore la Sierra Leone où l’impact ne dépasse pas 7 millions de dollars. Dans le même niveau, la RDC sécurise 0,2% de son PIB pour un impact évalué à 104 millions de dollars. De son côté, la Tanzanie qui a signé allége son PIB de 0,2% pour 148 millions de dollars. La Centrafrique et le Niger ont souscrit pour 0,3% de leur PIB avec des impacts de respectivement 6,3 millions de dollars et 25,8 millions de dollars. Les Commores obtiennent 0,3% de leur PIB soit 2,3 millions de dollars. Le Mali aussi voit la mesure impacter son PIB de 0,3% pour 52, 3 millions de dollars. Autre pays ayant souscrit à l’initiative, le Tchad qui obtient un allègement de 61 millions de dollars soit 0,5% de son PIB. Un impact similaire que celui de la Côte d’Ivoire, à profil modéré, avec 0,5% du PIB équivalent 231 millions de dollars. Ou encore le Sénégal qui bénéficie d’un impact de 131 millions de dollars représentant 0,5% du PIB.
Le Togo qui présente un niveau d’endettement global élevé est dans le même niveau d’impact (0,5%) pour un allègement de 25,8 millions de dollars. Classé dans la catégorie des pays à risque élevé, le Ghana épargne 368,8 millions pour 0,5 % de son PIB. La Zambie a souscrit au programme pour 142,6 millions de dollars soit 0,6% du PIB. La Guinée soulage son économie pour l’équivalent de 1% de son PIB représentant 126, 1 millions de dollars. L’Ethiopie épargne 0,6% de son PIB pour 570 millions de dollars. Le Cap-Vert épargne 0,7% de son PIB soit 14,9 millions de dollars. Le Cameroun engrange un impact de 276 millions de dollars soit 0,7% de son PIB. Même niveau que celui engrangé par la Gambie, pays en endettement élevé qui pousse un ouf de soulagement pour 11,5 millions de dollars soit 0,7% du PIB.
Pour rappel, au mois d’avril 2020, le Comité du développement, organe conjoint de la Banque mondiale et du Fonds monétaire international (FMI), et les ministres des Finances du G20 ont validé la mise en place de l’Initiative de suspension du service de la dette, à la suite de l’appel lancé par la Banque mondiale et le FMI en faveur des pays les plus pauvres, afin de les aider à faire face aux graves conséquences de la pandémie de COVID-19 (coronavirus). Cet appel, qui plaide pour une participation large et équitable, exhorte tous les créanciers publics bilatéraux à agir rapidement pour permettre aux pays à faible revenu de concentrer leurs ressources sur la lutte contre la pandémie. Le G20 a également appelé tous les créanciers privés à participer à cette démarche sur des bases comparables, une petite phrase qui a alerté les agences de notation, assez conservatrices depuis vis-à-vis de la réévaluation des cotes de crédit.
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