Sur les cinquante pays africains étudiés, huit risquent de subir d’importantes pertes économiques. Il s’agit du Soudan, de la Mauritanie, du Mali, du Niger, du Burkina Faso, du Tchad, de Djibouti et du Nigeria. Ces pays particulièrement vulnérables au changement climatique pourraient enregistrer des réductions de leurs taux de croissance économique de plus de 25 % d’ici 2050 et de plus de 75 % à l’horizon 2100.
Le réchauffement climatique pourrait réduire la croissance du PIB du continent africain de près de deux tiers d’ici la fin du siècle en cours si des investissements importants ne sont pas réalisés dans le domaine de l’adaptation au dérèglement du climat, a souligné l’organisation britannique Christian Aid dans un rapport publié le 9 novembre.
Intitulé « Le coût pour l’Afrique : des dommages économiques considérables dus au changement climatique », ce rapport précise que le maintien des politiques climatiques actuelles, qui aboutirait à un réchauffement de 2,7°C par rapport à l’ère préindustrielle d’ici la fin du siècle, pourrait réduire la croissance du PIB du continent de 20% d’ici 2050 et de 64% d’ici 2100.
Christian Aid indique également que même si l’humanité parvenait à limiter le réchauffement climatique à 1,5 °C par rapport au niveau préindustriel, conformément aux objectifs de l’accord de Paris sur le climat, la croissance économique des pays africains devrait être en moyenne réduite de 14 % d’ici 2050 et de 34 % d’ici 2100.
« Tous les pays africains sont confrontés à des réductions massives de leurs taux de croissance économique en raison des effets néfastes du changement climatique dans les années et les décennies à venir », déplorent les auteurs du rapport, notant que ces taux de croissance sont déjà soumis à d’énormes pressions à court terme en raison des impacts du Covid, de l’aggravation des crises de la dette, de la hausse des taux d’intérêt et de mesures l’austérité qui deviennent une condition sine qua non à l’obtention de financement de la part de divers bailleurs de fonds.
Huit pays très vulnérables
L’analyse des retombées économiques du réchauffement climatique en Afrique qui a été pilotée par Marina Andrijevic, économiste à l’Institut international d’analyse des systèmes appliqués de Vienne, porte sur 50 pays du continent. Mais huit pays risquent d’être particulièrement touchés par d’importantes pertes économiques. Il s’agit du Soudan, de la Mauritanie, du Mali, du Niger, du Burkina Faso, du Tchad, de Djibouti et du Nigeria. Ces pays risquent de subir des réductions de leurs taux de croissance économique de plus de 25 % d’ici 2050 et de plus de 75 % d’ici 2100 dans le scénario d’un maintien des politiques climatiques actuelles.
Le Soudan, où des inondations ont provoqué le déplacement de 258 000 personnes dans 15 des 18 provinces du pays depuis le début de l’année en cours, pourrait ainsi être confronté à une réduction de la croissance de son PIB de 32,4 % d’ici 2050 et de 84 % d’ici 2100.
Même dans le scénario d’un réchauffement limité à 1,5°C par rapport au niveau préindustriel, le Soudan pourrait enregistrer une réduction de la croissance de son PIB de 22,4% d’ici 2050 et de 51,6% d’ici 2100.
Rappelant que le changement climatique a d’ores et déjà engendré une augmentation de la fréquence des phénomènes climatiques extrêmes tels que les vagues de chaleur, les sécheresses prolongées, les cyclones dévastateurs et les fortes inondations, le rapport note que l’impact économique du dérèglement du climat se fait déjà sentir en Afrique. Entre 1991 et 2010, la hausse des températures a déjà réduit les taux de croissance des pays du continent de 13,6 % en moyenne.
Ces dégâts économiques touchent de plein fouet le continent alors qu’il n’est responsable que de moins de 4% du total des émissions des gaz à effet de serre enregistrées à l’échelle mondiale.
Les vingt pays africains où la croissance économique devrait ralentir le plus d’ici 2050 et 2100 ne génèrent en moyenne que des émissions de 0,43 tonne de CO2 par personne contre des moyennes de 18 tonnes/personne en Arabie Saoudite, 14,2 tonnes/personne aux Etats-Unis et 14,5% tonnes/personne en Australie.
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