L’Afrique, c’est l’avenir (a), et l’avenir est africain (a). Plus qu’un slogan, cette vision souligne le formidable potentiel du continent pour progresser et se développer. Avec la population la plus jeune au monde, l’Afrique comptera pour un cinquième de la population globale d’ici 2030. Cette richesse démographique constitue à la fois une fantastique réserve de capital humain et un vaste marché de consommateurs.
L’Afrique attire ainsi de plus en plus d’investissements, notamment du fait de rendements particulièrement élevés (avec des risques plus élevés également). En tirant parti de la jeunesse et de la taille de sa population, l’Afrique pourrait s’imposer comme le prochain moteur de la croissance économique, grâce à la technologie, l’amélioration des infrastructures, de la santé et de l’éducation. Dans cette perspective, l’agglomération des activités économiques sera un facteur clé, comme le soulignait un précédent Rapport sur le développement dans le monde de la Banque mondiale, consacré à l’économie géographique. Une réglementation efficace et un niveau d’infrastructure adapté, permettront l’émergence d’un secteur privé compétitif, un élément indispensable pour entraîner l’intégration de l’économie dans les chaînes d’approvisionnement et de valeur mondiales – permettant à terme de tirer parti des effets d’agglomération.
De nombreux « pôles d’activité » (ou « hubs ») devraient ainsi voir le jour dans différents secteurs, industries et services. La mise en place de ces pôles rencontre un fort assentiment de la part des gouvernements, qui y voient l’opportunité de stimuler les investissements et de créer de nombreux emplois de qualité.
Mais que peuvent faire les pouvoirs publics pour y parvenir ? Voici quelques idées, tirées d’expériences antérieures :
Exemples de pôles d’activité
Dans de nombreux cas, les pôles d’activité ont permis de transformer des pays, même petits, en centres d’affaires régionaux ou mondiaux. Hong Kong, la Chine ou Singapour en sont les exemples les plus célèbres. Hong Kong est un exemple de “hub” mondial. En effet, en plus d’abriter l’un des ports à conteneurs les plus actifs au monde, Hong Kong est également l’un des principaux pôles d’activité dans le secteur des services financiers et de l’économie numérique.
Singapour, comme Hong Kong, accueille de nombreux pôles – commercial, financier, logistique et dans le domaine du transport aérien. Singapour s’est imposée parmi les grands centres économiques mondiaux et a su passer « des bidonvilles à une stature mondiale ». Pour se transformer en pôles d’activité, ces villes ont su tirer parti de plusieurs facteurs, comme leur situation géographique, leur langue, la stabilité des institutions, ainsi qu’une infrastructure de premier ordre. Les orientations politiques en vue d’atteindre ce statut ont pourtant été sensiblement différentes selon les cas.
À Singapour, les décideurs politiques ont fortement soutenu le développement de leur territoire en pôle d’activité, à travers des interventions directes de l’État dans les infrastructures et des financements. À Hong Kong, en revanche, c’est avant tout le secteur privé qui a entraîné la transformation de la péninsule en “hub”, par le biais d’initiatives qui ont pu voir le jour grâce à une réglementation saine. Quel que soit le modèle, le rôle du secteur privé dans la prise de décisions politiques s’avère central : les retours d’expérience permettent d’orienter les choix et d’améliorer en continu le profil du pôle d’activité.
Création de pôles d’activité
La création de “hubs” s’appuie à la fois sur des bases théoriques et pratiques. En théorie, l’émergence d’un tel pôle repose sur le concept d’économie géographique et de modèles gravitationnels des échanges commerciaux. Ces cadres théoriques ont par exemple été décrits dans les travaux de Fujita, Krugman et Venables et ceux Porter. L’analyse des premiers se concentre sur la hausse des rendements par un effet d’entraînement positif, alors que celle de Porter met en avant le rôle déterminant de variables qualitatives telles que la stabilité du cadre institutionnel et la diffusion des connaissances pour développer les avantages comparatifs des pôles d’activité. Dans les faits, deux éléments essentiels concourent à la naissance d’un pôle d’activité : l’accès au marché (du côté de la demande) et les capacités de production de biens et de services (du côté de l’offre). C’est-à-dire la capacité de fournir des biens et des services aux marchés et la capacité d’une économie à produire ces biens et services commercialisables (voir la figure ci-dessous). L’accès au marché dépend de la localisation, de la connectivité et des capacités logistiques, ainsi que d’avantages liés aux choix de politiques commerciales. Toutefois, comme en témoignent les exemples de Hong Kong et de Singapour, c’est bien le succès du secteur privé qui détermine au final le succès du “hub”.
Que peuvent faire les gouvernements africains pour encourager la création de pôles d’activité ?
Pour favoriser les effets d’agglomération des entreprises privées et la formation de clusters, qui pourront devenir des pôles d’activité, les gouvernements africains peuvent :
- Fournir l’environnement réglementaire nécessaire au succès des entreprise au sein du pôle, par exemple dans des domaines comme l’application des contrats et les droits de propriété intellectuelle ;
- Lancer les infrastructures indispensables à l’agglomération des entreprises, notamment par le biais de partenariats public-privé afin de développer ou renforcer les capacités énergétiques, les ports, les liaisons routières et les infrastructures de télécommunication ;
- Accélérer la transformation numérique en offrant des services nécessaires (comme l’internet haut débit), des plateformes de paiement mobile et une réglementation numérique adaptée (par exemple la réglementation couvrant les risques financiers et les autorisations d’émission de monnaie électronique) ;
- Mettre en œuvre l’accord sur la Zone de libre-échange africaine (ZLECAf) récemment ratifié pour rendre le marché régional plus accessible, et permettre ainsi de stimuler le commerce, les investissements et les transactions financières sur le continent.
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