C’est une « perte substantielle » a expliqué l’économiste en chef de l’organisation, Gita Gopinath. Mais une croissance plus importante que prévue pourrait marquer l’année 2021, grâce au déploiement accéléré des vaccins, souligne encore le FMI.
Finalement, ce sera 22 000 milliards de dollars de moins pour le PIB mondial entre 2020 et 2025. C’est la différence « substantielle » entre les projections réalisées avant et après l’épidémie. Ses effets vont se poursuivre encore quelques années d’autant plus que la pandémie n’est toujours pas sous contrôle, voire reprend de la vigueur, comme au Royaume-Uni. L’Europe, avec ses mesures de confinement voit repousser à 2022 le retour potentiel de son économie aux niveaux d’avant la crise. Pourtant, le FMI s’attend à un rebond de 5,5% du PIB mondial contre 5,2% trois mois plus tôt.
Les plans d’aide doivent se poursuivre
Mais encore faut-il que la vaccination se poursuivent vite et concernent le plus grand nombre d’ici 2022 et que les plans d’aide massifs des gouvernements continuent. Le petit rebond des prévisions de croissance en 2021 repose aussi sur la reprise en Chine (qui affiche plus de 8%) et l’effet attendu des plans de relance américains. Celui de Trump et celui à venir de Biden.
Les population fragiles portent le fardeau
La croissance américaine pourrait afficher dès cette année une fière croissance de 5,1%. A condition de ne pas retirer prématurément les aides, notamment aux populations les plus fragiles. Ce sont elles, rappelle l’économiste en chef du FMI, qui portent de façon disproportionnée le fardeau de la crise.
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